National Championship Hopes Still Alive for Mountaineers
By Jeremy Curtis on Nov 4, 2007 in Football, Predictions, Rankings/BCS/Polls
With no. four Arizona State and no. two Boston College both losing, West Virginia has climbed back up to no. six in both the Coaches’ and AP polls. They are 7th in the latest BCS rankings. I’ve been one of the believers that WVU can sneak back into the national championship picture, even right after the Mountaineers lost at South Florida. Patrick White missed the second half of that game, and not to take anything away from capable back-up Jarrett Brown, WVU missed its best player.
BREAKING DOWN THE BIG EAST PICTURE
West Virginia has defeated three teams that own winning records. Louisville (5-4), Cincinnati (7-2) and Connecticut (8-1) remain on the schedule. All three have winning records and would be regarded as quality wins. Pitt looms at 4-5 and could also own a winning record come Dec. 1.
If Cincinnati knocks off uprise Connecticut next Saturday, the Bearcats should again be ranked in the top 25 when WVU meets up with them.
Connecticut would need to bounce back and beat Syracuse the following week to secure a top 25 ranking for the Nov. 24 date in Morgantown.
If WVU is able to win out under this scenario, they would be the Big East champions and earn the automatic BCS bowl bid. This would also give them a valid argument in terms of strength of schedule.
If Connecticut beats Cincinnati and Syracuse, their game at West Virginia could decide the conference champion. They would probably rank somewhere between 10-13 in the BCS. A win over the Huskies in that instance would also boost WVU’s strength of schedule. If WVU and Uconn both have only one conference loss, they are declared co-champions. WVU would own the head-to-head match-up and earn the BCS bowl bid.
WHO HAS AN INSIDE TRACK TO THE BCS CHAMPIONSHIP
- Ohio State (10-0)
The Buckeyes are rolling through a weakened Big Ten conference. Illinois and Michigan remain on their schedule. The number one team in the land has yet to defeat a team ranked in the top 20. They should be able to beat Illinois at home. Their final test is at Michigan. They will need the Wolverines not to drop any further in the rankings or the voters may question their schedule. But, it’s pretty simple for OSU. Beat Illinois at home, beat Michigan on the road and punch your ticket to New Orleans. Their game Saturday against Wisconsin was tied 17-17 heading into the fourth quarter. Wisconsin was without their running back P.J. Hill. As crazy as this year has been, I don’t see OSU going undefeated. It’s just too hard. Michigan will spoil the Buckeyes’ perfect season and screw things up even more. The Buckeyes will sit out the final two weeks of the season as everyone else keeps playing. The computers will drop them for that as they did Michigan in 2006. - LSU (8-1)
The Tigers are the best team in college football. A triple overtime loss at Kentucky is their only blemish. They have wins against then-no. nine Virginia Tech (48-7), then-no. 12 South Carolina, then-no. nine Florida, then-no. 17 Auburn and then-no. 17 Alabama. La Tech, Ole Miss and Arkansas remain on their schedule. The Tigers should also have a chance for another quality win in the SEC title game. They remind me of Florida of a year ago. They nearly get beat, but find ways to win in the nation’s most difficult conference. I think they will drop another game, however. Les Miles arrogant play-calling has nearly cost them on several occasions. Tennessee or Florida will play the spoiler role Dec. 1 in the SEC title game in Atlanta. - Oregon (8-1)
The Ducks have the easiest path remaining. They’ll play at Arizona, at Ucla and vs Oregon State. The home game against Oregon State will be their toughest. Oregon’s only loss was at home against Cal, who has since lost three of their last four. The Ducks are very capable of making it to the national championship and they will. - Kansas (9-0)
Who would’ve had Kansas ranked no. four in week 10 of the season? The Jayhawks will still play Oklahoma State, Iowa State and Missouri. They could lose to Missouri. If they win that, they could lose to Oklahoma in the Big XII championship game. Either scenario is very possible. Kansas will finally drop one late in the season, and have any hopes of a national championship end. - Oklahoma (8-1)
OU lost to unranked Colorado. They nearly edged off a 2-8 Iowa State team. Baylor, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State await the Sooners. I think Oklahoma will drop another, this time at Texas Tech. They could also lose in the Big XII championship game to either Kansas or Missouri. - Missouri (8-1)
The Tigers have to play Texas A&M, at Kansas State and at Kansas. They will lose to either K-State, Kansas or in a possible Big XII championship game. - West Virginia (7-1)
The Mountaineers have Louisville, Cincinnati, Connecticut and Pitt left on their schedule. WVU will be favored to win all their remaining games. They will need help in front of them though. The Mountaineers linger at 7th in the BCS. Everyone ahead of them has played at least one more game and benefits from that in the computers. WVU has been in plenty of big games with Patrick White, Steve Slaton and company. They will run the table and if they get some help along the way, they’ll play in the BCS national championship.
THE BOTTOM LINE
BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
Oregon vs West Virginia
I am probably one of the only people that will tell you Oregon and West Virginia will play for the national championship. Rich Rodriguez’ spread offense is the new wave of college football and you better believe it is here to stay. Oregon and West Virginia benefit from superior speed at the skill positions. The Big Ten teams and Big XII teams (and ACC, but they have no legitimate title contender) couldn’t match the overall team speed of either the Ducks, Mountaineers or the SEC as a whole. Speed kills (see OSU losing to Fla 41-14 in 2006).
This would be a dream match-up and would provide a highly entertaining game. Some of you will probably say, “keep dreamin,” but if WVU and Oregon win out, and get some help from the teams in front of them, don’t be shocked. This season has been really crazy. I think no teams will go undefeated. The spread offense will be on display for the entire nation to see.
THE REMAINING BCS BOWLS
ROSE BOWL
Ohio State vs Arizona StateORANGE BOWL
Virginia vs KansasFIESTA BOWL
Oklahoma vs MichiganSUGAR BOWL
Hawaii vs LSU
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Couchburner | Nov 5, 2007 | Reply
I hate to say it, but this is two weeks in a row where WVU has no gain in the BCS. Hell, Oklahoma moved up with a bye week. The Kansas win was impressive, but it was against NEBRASKA! The win was not a quality win worth four spots in the BCS. Missouri beat Colorado, again not a quality win worth three spots in the BCS. The #1 and #2 teams should be Oregon and LSU in that order. Our only hope to gain significant spots in the BCS is to put up 76 points a game against Lousiville, Cincinnati, UConn and Pitt. Beacuse that seems to all that the pollsters are looking at.
Black Beatty | Nov 5, 2007 | Reply
You outta be happy Boston College and ASU dropped behind ya. You moved up 1 spot with a bye this week. Maybe you’ll win out and play Virginia in the Orange Bowl. Ha, wouldn’t that be sweet.
See ya in the Gator Bowl
Josh | Nov 5, 2007 | Reply
Also doesnt a BE school get a BCS bowl game if one team plays for the NC?
John | Nov 5, 2007 | Reply
I’d like to see WVU vs. LSU for the championship. Big East & SEC are the best conferences in football. Teams shouldn’t be in there just because their conferences are down and they play easy schedules i.e. OH St and Oregon.
Black Beatty | Nov 5, 2007 | Reply
John you are clueless.
LMB
jwilson | Nov 5, 2007 | Reply
You can’t call someone out, BB, and then not explain…
russdigga | Nov 5, 2007 | Reply
if wvu does make it to the BCS title game.. there is still a lot that has to happen..
im going to take a more pessimestic view… or realistic.. whichever way you want to look at it
There are four teams with a much better shot at getting to the title ahead of us in OSU, LSU, Oregon, and Oklahoma…
OSU - win out and they go. no question.. lose to illinois or michigan and they likely drop behind us… possible but not probable that they lose to either of these teams…
LSU - win out and they will go as well… very well could lose in the SEC championship game as some of their flaws have been revealed since early in the season (playcalling, etc.)
Oregon - another win out and go to the title game barring one of the top two lose. easiest schedule ahead.. Likely they will not lose.
Oklahoma - is kansas for real.. im still a doubter.. is oklahoma for real.. im still a doubter.. but they have the talent to win out against a weak big 12 conference this year..
WVU - are we really going to jump anybody that doesnt lose? Its possible but not likely, although we still have some tough games left, the only game that could vault us above the aforementioned would be UConn.. who woulda thought..
Kansas could win out.. but that would be a miracle… look for Mizzou to beat Kansas and Oklahoma to beat the Mizz in the big-10 final…
in that case we would need texas tech to beat oklahoma.. as we have seen this year anything can happen but i doubt it will..
in summation, Oklahoma and Oregon will most likely be playing in the BCS Title game..
I think the teams most likely to lose their way out of the title game are OSU against UM in a big rivalry game… and LSU to lose in the SEC championship game…
MountaineerBob | Nov 5, 2007 | Reply
So where do you think we end up? I just hope we play an SEC, PAC10, or BIG10 team so we can shut those a-holes up.
russdigga | Nov 5, 2007 | Reply
well while i dont know enough about the selection process of the BCS after the title game (my understanding is that it rotates by choice with certain conferences champions playing in certain bowls i.e. big 10 v. pac 10 in rose bowl) after some google research it turns out to be like this…
2. Unless they qualify to play in the NCG, the champions of selected conferences are contractually committed to host selected games:
Atlantic Coast Conference-Orange Bowl
Big Ten Conference-Rose Bowl
Big 12 Conference-Fiesta Bowl
Pac-10 Conference-Rose Bowl
Southeastern Conference-Sugar Bowl
The selection process is actually quite interesting, based on replacement picks and a rotating annual scheme based on the first pics being from the bowl played at the latest date..
this year would be the orange bowl on jan 3rd.
Based on my selection from above.. the rose bowl and fiesta bowl would have the first two replacement picks.. if UM wins out and wins the conference the Rose Bowl would be dumb to select a rematch between them and OSU and would likely select either the pac-10 runner up (ASU or USC)or a team that travels well like WVU..
Heres where it gets confusing if it already hasnt.. oklahoma would likely be number 1 in the BCS if they win out because they have the extra conference final game, and therefore the fiesta bowl would then have first replacement pick..
Unfortunately the first pick will most likely be the winner of the ASU v. USC game in a couple weeks, simply based on geography. Fiesta Bowl will pick either team before anyone else. Its interesting to note that ASU would play so close to home in the Fiesta and USC would play at home in the Rose Bowl. Only two teams from each conference can get a bid, so thats not something to worry about.
However, if ASU wins and the Rose Bowl has the first replacement pick choice, would they bargain with the Fiesta Bowl and let ASU play at home and vice versa with USC at the Rose Bowl?
Who knows. Its possible.
It would be hard for the Rose Bowl or Fiesta Bowl to pass on a one-win WVU team that is exciting to watch and travels well. Since I think Oklahoma will be number 1 and Fiesta Bowl has first pick, I think they pick the Pac-10 runner up first.
Therefore as of right now, if things play out like I have predicted with an Oklahoma v. Oregon Championship game, I think WVU will play UM in the Rose Bowl.
I have before bitched about the Big East not being contractually attached to a BCS bowl, but I think this year it may help us. USC v ASU winner, OSU, and WVU will likely be the top teams left over.
God this is confusing, and will likely change next week after all the games are played out..
Sorry for wasting your time and mine on this analysis.
Jeremy Curtis | Nov 5, 2007 | Reply
I’d like to also point out LSU has been giving up an average of 31 ppg in their last four outings. Mr. McFadden, a forgotten Heisman candidate, and his Razorbacks are still on their schedule. He has 1316 rush yards and 12 touchdowns in only nine games. Arkansas lost at Bama by three points and to Auburn by only two. Their only other loss was to Kentucky. Don’t mark that LSU/Arkansas game off for the Tigers just yet.
John | Nov 6, 2007 | Reply
I’d like to see the bowls do away with conference-linked bowl selection and just let the top 10 teams play in the top 5 bowl games. Isn’t that why we have rankings? E.g. Why should #19 Virginia and #16 Hawaii get the Orange Bowl ahead of other, higher ranked teams with more impressive wins, and strength of schedules light years ahead of their own? Give credit to Hawaii for just going undefeated, period, but Virginia? Doesn’t seem fair.
russdigga | Nov 6, 2007 | Reply
john, the bid to virginia is only because jeremy is predicting that UVA will get the automatic bid because they win the ACC conference… not because they actually deserve an at-birth bid
russdigga | Nov 6, 2007 | Reply
ah didnt read the beginning part of the post.. about doing away with conference linkage..
there are pros and cons to both sides of that argument.. im on both sides depending on whichever is better for wvu for that particular year…
one thing im not on the fence about is Notre dame loophole in the BCS at-birth bid.. thats just dumb
Couchburner | Nov 6, 2007 | Reply
notre dame should be forced to join a conference if they want to play in a BCS game. Teams that make it to a BCS game have to share the earnings with the remaining teams in the conference…Notre Dame just pockets the entire amount.